REVEALED: REFORM’S GRAND PLAN
The King's Gambit
Reform UK has gone quiet. What’s going on?
Sure, Nigel Farage is back doing his thing (resuming his presenting gig at GB News and putting out punchy video clips on hot topics) but the after the frenzy of the election campaign, there has been little by way of high profile announcements. As Tories deliberate over who to choose as their next leader, they could be forgiven for secretly hoping that the puff has gone out of the party that cost them so many seats.
Now that the dust has settled, the bottom line is that Farage is one of just five Reform MPs trying to compete for airtime with some 645 others. In the absence of some kind of pact, the party will certainly be a problem for the Conservatives come the next general election, but who cares about that when it’s such a long way off?
The sense that the party has lost momentum has been reinforced by a low profile during the summer recess. August is traditionally a great time for the smaller parties to make waves, as journalists scrabble for stories while MPs are on their sunloungers. So what is the insurgent party that could reshape British politics up to?
The answer is: playing the long game.
Right now, the party leadership is heavily focused on building the infrastructure required for sustained success, rather than seeking ‘here today, gone tomorrow’ headlines.
The long haul until the next general election is a challenge as well as an opportunity, primarily because of money. Post-elections, all parties are desperate for cash – and there is no harder time to persuade would-be donors to cough up than after a crushing defeat.
The sales pitch may be easier for Reform, which can credibly claim to be on the up, than it is for the Tories, who will struggle to get a hearing from voters for quite some time. Nonetheless, both parties desperately need donors. With campaign bills flooding and staff to be paid, one or more people with deep pockets must take pity, or, in the worst-case scenario, bankruptcy may beckon.
All political parties live in fear of this fate. In my first ever co-authored book (“Inside Out,” an expose of Gordon Brown’s administration), Labour’s former General Secretary told how his party was once just hours from complete financial collapse – and it was in government at the time.
After Nigel Farage’s initial announcement that he would not stand at the election, Reform UK was heading for similar choppy waters. Campaign plans that had been months in the making were pared back to the bone, only to be scaled back up in the gold rush that accompanied Farage’s u-turn.
Against this backdrop, Tories have been focused on their next leader, while Reform has been discreetly putting in place the building blocks for future electoral success. Without announcement or fanfare, the party leadership has begun building the infrastructure required for a full ground campaign next time around. The primary task has been to establish a network of constituency branches.
This is something Farage has always been keen to do, but some other senior figures considered over-rated when the party was smaller, mindful that people with job titles and mini power bases in far-flung parts of the country can create trouble. (As the Tories know from bitter experience, Constituency Association Chairs are classic targets for Sunday newspaper journalist ring-rounds, providing rich fodder for unhelpful tales about discontent in the ranks.)
However, if Farage is to achieve his ambition of “replacing the Tories,” the party needs a more evenly distributed professional campaigning presence. Small pockets of excellence won’t do. A proper branch system means foot soldiers and is vital for collating local data, without which constituency campaigns are fatally weakened.
Chairman Zia Yusuf appears to have gripped this challenge while simultaneously making preparations for Reform UK’s biggest-ever party conference. Among those familiar with how perilous political party finances can be, especially between elections, the planned extravaganza in Birmingham may raise eyebrows. Party conferences don’t come cheap, but the leadership is nothing if not ambitious – and rightly keen to lay down a marker. The event is designed to send out the message that Reform UK’s success in the recent general election was not a flash in the pan but the start of something much, much bigger.
Stand by for pyrotechnics!